Trumps Market Update | December

The Trumps Market Update offers information on the current news & trends of select nuts, fruits & seeds across the world, see below.

USA Almonds:   While Domestic deliveries were down 2%, total November shipments were up Strong shipments were up 17%, buoyed by Exports – up 25%. This now gives YTD shipments at up 10% against last year. China was up a whopping 122%, likely due to lower volumes available from Australia.

If shipments continue at this rate, we could see the lowest carryover in many years.

Australian Almonds:  The Australian Almond crop is 164,700 tonnes for the 2024 season. This 2024-2025 crop forecast is 59.4% higher than the current season’s official intake of 103.381 tonnes and represents a return to average type yields across the five growing regions in Australia. New season harvest is expected to start late February next year. The 2024 crop prediction places almond production back on its long term trajectory of more than 200.000 tonnes within the next 3-5 years.

There is the usual negotiation period from mid December Feb/March between the collectors and the processors. This will determine how much is collected and therefore the size of the crop. Collectors are pushing for a better deal this season.

Apricots prices remain at high levels due to the small crop, rain damage and farmers holding stock against high inflation. Still, with Turkish interest rates at 50%. Ramadan early march will see this sold quickly and the chance of lower prices before new crop in September, seems very unlikely.

Prices continue to rise, due to low quality fruit. The price of all grades have now risen strongly and are expected to continue to rise.

Cashews prices continue their stable US dollar prices. Some smaller factories have offered discounts as they need to turn stock into cash, while some larger, well funded shippers are holding out for higher prices. Larger sized Cashews continue to be difficult to find and prices remain higher than usual. This tight supply will change with new crop Vietnamese / Cambodian crop in April/ May.

The Turkish crop estimate has now been further reduced to 600.000 inshell metric tons. With Turkish interest rates at 50% financing of inventory is impossible, therefore growers are offering more hazelnuts into the market. Overall demand is soft, as manufactures buy hand to mouth.

November shipments were 174 million pounds – a record month – up 111% on November 2022.  

Kernel prices in particular have risen. with this large crop, we don’t expect to see large prices increases. 

First shipments from Iran have commenced, though inshell Akbari prices remain well above USA prices. Iranian kernels are superior in flavour and have better cooking suitability to the USA and Australian Kernels. The Australian 2024 crop kernels will not be available until late 2024. 

The general information contained in this Market Update is based on the best available information that is current at the time of distribution. It is to be used as a guide only and is not intended to be relied on for your purchasing decisions.

If you would like further information on any of our products please contact your rep or our customer service team.  They would be happy to assist.

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